Here is my prediction for the candidates that will emerge from New Hampshire, then Super Tuesday on the 5th of February, and finally musings on November:
Democratic: Barack Obama will take New Hampshire readily, followed by John Edwards, and Hilary Clinton will trail at least 5 points behind Edwards (as voters who were watching Obama realize he actually could win...). Clinton will drop out quietly in the final week of January (that's two weeks away folks) as her funding drains dry, and as the DNC urges her to step aside. (Or shortly after a big defeat on Super Tuesday.)
Republican: John McCain will take the lead in New Hampshire due to his consistent message (and understanding) of national security, in the background glow of escalating Strait of Hormuz disturbances and insecurities, the IAEA and EU's failed attempts to deliver a clear message on Iran, and domestic concerns about energy prices. Huckabee will beat Romney on the 8th of January, and the two will bitterly fight in the mud until Super Tuesday when McCain will triumph.
And then the crystal ball goes dark. I guess an October Surprise will go in favour of the Republicans - and I'd favour Taiwan or Iran getting the world's attention during the late summer. Interestingly with the disturbances and uncertainty in Pakistan - both international and U.S. domestic - the pressures on the Pak government will key up efforts to hit Al Qaeda targets in Pakistan. I note with special interest the capture of Amin al-Haq, described as the security coordinator of Osama bin Laden’s Black Guard (who is presently being gently interrogated somewhere perhaps in Lahore). This may lead to a rolling-up of other senior A.Q. leadership. This may be (directly?) related to a reported revitalization in the efforts to uproot A.Q. in Pakistan's western tribal areas.
I have a feeling John McCain will outrun Barack Obama, but I am not stating any preferences at this time, as I am Canadian and I don't want to offend anyone in particular.
Cheers,
Mungo