Monday, February 4, 2008

Unite or Divide and Electability: My Predictions for California Primary, Super Tuesday and Beyond...

Here are my predictions* for the California Primary, Super (Duper) Tuesday and beyond...

Republican:

McCain will win the California GOP Primary, beating Romney, and convincing the latter that he should drop out. Romney will not be in the race in March. Huckabee will be gone too. The winner will take all: McCain will win the Republican Presidential Nomination and he will use the word 'transcendent' a little less (which is good, 'cuz that's kind of annoying).

Democratic:

Obama will narrowly win California (spread of less than 5 points), and this will positively set the stage for further wins on Super Tuesday and the following primaries. Despite this, remaining unpledged delegates and Super Delegates will emerge from their beds on Wednesday morning and stare at their cereal bowls and still be uncertain which way to go.

The tension of uniting/dividing messages and 'electability' will eventually run in favour of Obama and he will win the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination because he will be perceived as being a uniting force, despite his apparent limited experience - but again it will be an almost statistically insignificant spread between him and Clinton. The bean-counters will not get much rest until all the ballots have been counted and delegates spoken for.

Presidential Race:

It will come down to personality matches - McCain and Obama or McCain and Clinton. McCain has been careful in his speeches to hopscotch backwards over the Bush administration(s) and spend his time allying himself with Reagan's uniting legacy (for those with short memories, this suits just fine - shh don't ask any questions). In a contest between uniters and dividers , the American public will ensure that McCain will beat Clinton (both the candidate and the legacy), but Obama may just give McCain a run for his money for the same reasons. If I were a betting man, I'd say Obama gets it. If I were more conservative I would say McCain.

Cheers,

Mungo

*Note that my predictions are not necessarily my preferences - e.g. I predict that the TV in my basement will break in the next 12 months. I would prefer it if it didn't. Nevertheless, I predict that I will go canoe camping in April and I would prefer it if I did.