Camping and Halloween

This weather has been amazing for the last week - perfect camping weather. But I have been busy writing proposals in response to RFPs for work. Writing those proposals (about 65 pages each) have reminded me of writing essays for university, with the initial scramble to organize content, then getting lost in the content, then staring at it hopelessly and wondering what the hell has been written on the pages, then a burst of clarity as the content seems almost all written, then a sense that nothing is in the right order, then after a bit of formatting and ordering, the whole goddamn piece comes together and all is well.

My evening walks on the marina though give me pause for reflection. So while that's been a lot of fun in a weird way, camping is much more fun, and with this nice weather - well - I'd rather be camping.

Given that I didn't get a chance to go camping a few weekends ago, and given that I have taken to ruminating about camping, and given that I'd like to provide something of interest to my hundreds of thousands of readers, what follows is a description of some of my core camping equipment - the rest are little things that don't need a product description (e.g. fork, cord, socks) - it isn't complete, but I'll complete it along with way.

Oh, and by the way, here's the pumpkin we carved tonight.



MSR DragonFly Stove
Loud, adjustable flame, runs on naptha white-fuel, lightweight, awesome. Boiling time for 1 liter of water, 3 1/2 minutes. Love it.

Cooking Pot & Lid
Cheap aluminum pot and lid, holds 1 liter of water. Blackened on the base from soot, excellent heat conduction. Lid useful. I think I'd like to get a pot grabber.

Folding Frying Pan
non-stick folding frying pan. Excellent for bacon and eggs, a luxury cooking piece, but folds down, and easy to store. Useful but not vital. I try to bring it in case I catch a fish and want to fry it up.

Nalgene Bottle
This terrific invention is good obviously for storing water in a spill-proof way, but I think the fact that it does not hold on to stain or odours makes a big difference over conventional plastic. Also, on a cold night, you can fill it with boiling water and use it as a hot water bottle.

Stainless steel mug
For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea. For tea.

Camping Mattress
Primarily I use this for insulation. But it sure helps protect you from bumps and stones and sore hips. This mattress rolls up small, and when you take it out of the storage bag, and undo the valve, the foam structure within expands and draws air into the mattress. Fill the last bit of it with a few well placed puffs of air and seal the valve, and you have a guaranteed warm and comfortable night ahead of you. Heat conduction is a very important principle to keep in mind while in the bush - water conducts heat away from your body 27 times faster than does dry air. The cool earth saps your warmth less so, but still significantly. This is why if you don't have a sleeping bag, at the very least lay down a bed of spruce boughs for insulation.

Sleeping bag
Barring a bed of spruce boughs, my sleeping bag is a mummy-style bag - the hood easily holds a pillow (I always bring an empty pillow case and stuff it with cloths or leaves for a pillow), and it is rated down to -20 Celsius. I've slept in it at that temperature and the only part of me that was cold was my nose. Do not be tempted to stuff your face down into the sleeping bag though - condensation from your breath will moisten the bag and reduce its insulation qualities and make your night miserable. Make sure not to lay it too close to the fire too, sparks will make holes in the synthetic fabric. Mine contains synthethic insulation - down is more expensive and heavier. As long as your sleeping bag is dry, I'm fine with synthetic. I don't need to wear clothes inside it as it is warm, but you can buy a cotton liner for washing.

Compression sack
This is an awesome piece of equipment, ensuring that your sleeping bag is squished down as small as possible for transportation. Remember to store your sleeping bag at home unpacked, preferably hanging in a basement (dry basement), or in a closet. That way you don't risk reducing the insulation qualities of your bag.

Tent
I bought my dome tent at a house-sale in Parkdale one night a few years ago. A couple was going to go to BC and live on an island and were selling their old gear and I picked this 2 person tent up for $40. 2 Folding fibreglass rods assemble as the main structure, and a third provides form to the fly which affixes to the top of the dome. The fly adds a layer of insulating space above the tent, which in turn increases insulation, decreases condensation and makes the structure water resistant. Some really cool tents like some from Hilleberg tents in Sweden have the fly layer part of the main structure. I want one of these:



Compass
It is a good idea to know how to use a compass for camping. Otherwise a compass isn't much use. Basically, use it as a reliable indicator of direction. Stop, observe the needle point to North, and rotate the circular section until the North on it matches the North the needle is pointing too. With the pointy bit, take a bearing on a distant object in the direction you would like to go. Note this object, perhaps on a piece of paper or map. A tree, a ridge, a river bank. Walk to it. Wash and repeat. This way you navigate a series of straight lines, and keep on track. During a clear evening, note the direction of the north star. That helps at night if you are out on a lake. Saved me one evening years ago out on a lake in the fog - I could see above the fog into the sky, but not around me.

Firesteel
This is my primary method of starting a fire. I do not - on stubborn and likely misplaced principle - carry matches with me. I tried making a fire bow on my last solo trip. I used pine for the shaft and baseboard. This was a bad combination. I had everything working but the resin seems to have made the going tough. I'll try next time and keep y'all updated. A classic flint and steel works well as long as you bring char cloth or have tinder fungus prepared (boiled in a solution of ashes for saltpeter and dried out). I'd like to try that too.

More below - but I'll write up some details when I have more energy.

Fishing rod, gear, license
Hatchet
Sharpener
Headlamp
Radio
Lantern
Sheath Knife
Folding Knife
Bucksaw
Stuff bag
Chair
Tarp

SPAM SPAM SPAM RFP RFP SPAM

I have before me one can of SPAM luncheon meat (fully cooked) (product of U.S.A) (actually product of some little piggies) (U.S. Inspected and passed by Department of Agriculture).



It constitutes roughly 1073 calories in this little tiny boxy little can.



SPAM is excellent camping fare. It tastes great, and it is easier to transport in your knapsack than transporting an ornery pig in your canoe. Even transporting a calm and fully cooked pig in your canoe is awkward. It does not require refrigeration and basically gives you tons of calories to get through a busy day.



I am currently working an a potentially major RFP for work and it is 10:00 PM on a Friday night. If we win the contract, then I hope to celebrate with a can of SPAM.

I saw these things.

Wonko the Sane

Ducks Quacked Tonight and a Year Ago I Had Some Thoughts.

A year ago I had some thoughts. I've been at this blog thing for over a year - not including the original Wonko Web.

Pablo got a good saw too, similar to the one that I was interested in. It was warm enough today that when I walked Monty out in the dark by the marina, I could shut out the lights of the island and pretend that I was camping. The stars shimmered, the ducks quacked, the wind blew and the night was dark.

Spring is in Atlantic City winning cash galore, so I'm in the condo with all the lights off except for my computer screen and a lantern with a candle quiet in the background. I am listening to this David Bowie song. Listen to it too. It will bring you back to the days when you listened to it more.



Oh You Pretty Things

Wake up you sleepy head
Put on some clothes, shake off your bed
Put another log on the fire for me
I've made some breakfast and coffee
Look out my window, what do I see
A crack in the sky and a hand reaching down to me
All the nightmares came today
And it looks as though they're here to stay

What are we coming to
No room for me, no fun for you
I think about a world to come
Where the books were found by the golden ones
Written in pain, written in awe
By a puzzled man who questioned
What we were here for
All the strangers came today
And it looks as though they're here to stay

Oh you pretty things (oh you pretty things)
Don't you know you're driving your
Mamas and papas insane
Oh you pretty things (oh you pretty things)
Don't you know you're driving your
Mamas and papas insane
Let me make it plain
You gotta make way for the homo superior

Look out at your children
See their faces in golden rays
Don't kid yourself they belong to you
They're the start of a coming race
The earth is a bitch
We've finished our news
Homo sapiens have outgrown their use
All the strangers came today
And it looks as though they're here to stay

Oh you pretty things (oh you pretty things)
Don't you know you're driving your
Mamas and papas insane
Oh you pretty things (oh you pretty things)
Don't you know you're driving your
Mamas and papas insane
Let me make it plain
You gotta make way for the homo superior

North Korea | DPRK | Nuclear Explosions Pending

They're about to do it, the DPRK has informed China of 3 impending tests.

Hold on to your seats.

Algonquin Park

My Dad and I drove up to Algonquin Park on Friday morning in the dark, and by the time we reached just outside of the park the roads were covered in ice, slush and strong winds of 70kph were starting to blow and 6 inches of snow and a nasty storm was being forecast and so we somberly came to the conclusion that we would be tempting fate by canoeing through whitecaps and snow in the freezing wind. 7 hours after leaving we made it back to Toronto.

I spent the weekend keeping a brave face on.

That Cleaner, Fresher Taste

Mmmmm. Algonquin.

Idiot-proof Outlook - Disable Address Auto-Complete & Enable Sending Delay.

There are a couple of good ways to goof-up using Outlook while at the office.

You can start to type in Fred Smith's e-mail address to send him a confidential e-mail and have Outlook tragically yet quietly auto-complete to an extremely interested competitor named Fredrica Jones.

Also, you can spend several careful minutes crafting that clever and important business e-mail, hit send, and then panic several seconds later when you remember you made a critical typo. A colleague, already inflamed from being told off sent an angry e-mail about not having received some crucial information. Upon finding out they had the information all along, they sheepishly followed up with an e-mail apologizing, stating they had overlooked the vital information.

I have goofed-up both ways (although not simultaneously and not critically) and enabled these tips to protect myself.

Disable Address Auto-complete:

1. Click "Tools", selecting "Options".
   
2. When the "Options" multi-tabbed dialog box appears, click the "Preferences" tab.
   
3. Click "E-Mail Options".
   
4. When the "Advanced E-Mail Options" dialog appears, uncheck "Suggest names while completing To, CC, and Bcc fields".
   
5. Click "OK" to close the dialog box.
   

Enable 1 minute delay for outgoing messages:

1. Go to Tools | Rules and Alerts
   
   
2. Click on New Rule
   
3. Select Start from a Blank Rule
   
4. Select Check Message After Sending
   
   
5. Ignore the 'Conditions' list, just click Next to advance
   
   
6. Click Next again - you will be prompted with another dialog that asks "This rule will be applied to every message you send. Is this correct?"
   
   
7. Click Yes
   
8. Select the "defer delivery by a number of minutes" option and specify the number of minutes that you wish to delay your outgoing email.
   
9. Hit OK
   
   
10. Don't enable any exceptions
    
11. Name your rule sometting like "Sending Delay Rule"
    
12. Click Finish
    

I use a 1 minute delay, long enough for me to catch mistakes, but short enough that I'm not anxiously waiting for my message to send.

Mungo's recently popular "How to delete all cookies in Firefox on closing, EXCEPT for those from selected domains!" posting....

Boom Boom

And now the Associated Press is quoting the Japanese Foreign Ministry as saying the DPRK has lit off another one.

Holy crap.

Reuters is agreeing.


My mom sent me to school with my normal clothes and forgot it was picture day.

Canoeing Algonquin Park

In 3 days, 14 hours and 24 minutes I expect to be headed out the door on my way on a solo canoeing trip into Algonquin Park. I can think of nothing else really. I plan on doing some fishing.


These photographs are of my Dad - we went camping a year ago, and one morning he took the canoe out into the mist and explored the lake.

OPLAN 5027 Major Theater War - West

They've popped one off.

"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the [sic] our military and people," the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency said.

OPLAN 5027 is the US-ROK Combined Forces Command basic warplan. Under Operations Plan 5027 (CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027), the United States plans to provide units to reinforce the Republic of Korea in the event of external armed attack. These units and their estimated arrival dates are listed in the Time Phased Force Deployment List (TPFDL), Appendix 6, to Annex A to CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027. The TPFDL is updated biennially through U.S./ROK agreements. CINCUNC/CFC OPLAN 5027 is distributed with a SECRET-U.S./ROK classification.

Pyongyang can credibly threaten the prompt destruction of Seoul with conventional arms alone. The North Korean military could also establish a shallow foothold across the DMZ. However, the DPRK's ability to sustain these offensive operations, or advance its forces further to the south, is questionable. South Korean and American air forces could quickly establish air supremacy and destroy North Korean ground forces. The ensuing buildup of US forces in Korea could reverse any remaining North Korean advances into the South, and unlease offensive operations into the North. North Korea does not require long-range missiles with nuclear, chemical, or biological warheads to devastate Seoul or to make a land grab across the DMZ. Such weapons are needed to deter or defeat an American counteroffensive into North Korea.

Pyongyang has the ability to start a new Korean War, but not to survive one.

North Korea has about 500 long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul, double the levels of a the mid-1990s. Seoul is within range of the 170mm Koksan gun and two hundred 240mm multiple-rocket launchers. The proximity of these long-range systems to the Demilitarized Zone threatens all of Seoul with devastating attacks. Most of the rest of North Korea's artillery pieces are old and have limited range. North Korea fields an artillery force of over 12,000 self-propelled and towed weapon systems. Without moving any artillery pieces, the North could sustain up to 500,000 rounds an hour against Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours.

North Korea's short-term blitzkrieg strategy envisions a successful surprise attack in the early phase of the war to occupy some or all of South Korea before the arrival of US reinforcements on the Korean Peninsula. North Korean ground forces, totaling some 1 million soldiers, are composed of some 170 divisions and brigades including infantry, artillery, tank, mechanized and special operation forces. Of the total, about 60 divisions and brigades are deployed south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan line. North Korea has deployed more than half of its key forces in forward bases near the border. Seventy percent of their active force, to include 700,000 troops, 8,000 artillery systems, and 2,000 tanks, is garrisoned within 100 miles of the Demilitarized Zone. Much of this force is protected by underground facilities, including over four thousand underground facilities in the forward area alone. From their current locations these forces can attack with minimal preparations. This means a surprise attack on South Korea is possible at any time without a prior redeployment of its units.

The North Korean navy has also deployed 430 surface combatants and about 60 percent of some 90 submarine combat vessels near the front line in forward bases. With about 40 percent of its 790 fighter planes deployed near the front line, the North Korean air force could launch a surprise attack on any part of South Korea within a short period of time.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea possesses larger forces than Iraq, and they are already deployed along South Korea's border. A war could explode after a warning of only a few hours or days, not weeks. Unlike in the Persian Gulf, this attack would be prosecuted along a narrow peninsula on mountainous terrain. It would probably be accompanied by massed artillery fire, commando raids, and chemical weapons. Initially, the primary battlefield would be only about 125 kilometers wide and 100 kilometers deep. The DPRK attack would be conducted against well-prepared ROK forces in fortified positions and against larger US forces than in the Persian Gulf. Most probably, the DPRK attack would aim at seizing nearby Seoul by advancing down the Kaesong-Munsan, Kumwa, and Chorwon corridors. If successful, North Korean forces might also try to conquer the entire peninsula before large US reinforcements arrive.

The South Barrier Fence is the Southern part of the DMZ. The South Koreans have a series of Defensive lines that cross the entire peninsula, but with the exception of the South Barrier Fence, they aren't connected completely across the peninsula. They are designed to withstand an attack and allow a minimum force to hold a line while reinforcement/counter attack forces are assembled and sent to destroy any penetrations.

The basic goal of a North Korean southern offensive is destruction of allied defenses either before South Korea can fully mobilize its national power or before significant reinforcement from the United States can arrive and be deployed. The primary objective of North Korea's military strategy is to reunify the Korean Peninsula under North Korean control within 30 days of beginning hostilities. A secondary objective is the defense of North Korea.

To accomplish these ambitious objectives, North Korea envisions fighting a two-front war. The first front, consisting of conventional forces, is tasked with breaking through defending forces along the DMZ, destroying defending CFC forces, and advancing rapidly down the entire peninsula. This operation will be coordinated closely with the opening of a second front consisting of SOF units conducting raids and disruptive attacks in CFC's rear.

The DPRK offensive against the ROK will consist of three phases. The objective of the first phase will be to breach the defenses along the DMZ and destroy the forward deployed forces. The objective of the second phase will be to isolate Seoul and consolidate gains. The objective of the third phase will be to pursue and destroy remaining forces and occupy the remainder of the peninsula.

Approximately forty percent of the South Korean population resides within 40 miles of Seoul. While the terrain north of Seoul is dominated by rice paddies offering limited off-road mobility, the terrain west of Seoul is a wide coastal plan with the main invasion routes to Seoul. North Korean forces attacking Seoul through the Chorwon or Munsan corridors would have to cross the Han or Imjin rivers (while these rivers freeze in the winter, the ice is not strong enough to support heavy armor). The narrow eastern coastal plain is lightly settled and less heavily defended, though mountains make movement of forces from the east coast difficult.

The US plans are based on the belief that the North Koreans would not be successful in consolidating their gains around Seoul and could be pushed back across the DMZ -- though the plans assume the North may break through the DMZ in places. A critical issue is strategic warning of unambiguous signs that North Korea is preparing an attack. The warning time has reportedly been shortened from about ten days to about three days as North Korea has covered its military activities.

The US-ROK defense plan would be shaped not only by the threat but also by the mountainous terrain. Korea is commonly regarded as rugged infantry terrain that invites neither mobile ground warfare nor heavy air bombardment, but North Korea has assembled large armored forces that are critical to exploiting breakthroughs, and these forces would pass down narrow corridors that are potential killing zones for U.S. airpower. A new Korean War would bear little resemblance to the conflict of 1950­53.

During Phase 1, US-ROK forces would conduct a vigorous forward defense aimed at protecting Seoul. Their campaign would be dominated by combined-arms ground battles waged with infantry, artillery, and armor. US air and naval forces would conduct close air support, interdiction, and deep strike missions. After Phase 1, US-ROK operations in Phase 2 would probably focus on seizing key terrain, inflicting additional casualties on enemy forces, and rebuffing further attacks. Phase 3, to start when the US ground buildup was complete and ROK forces were replenished, would be a powerful counteroffensive aimed at destroying the DPRK's military power. The war plan envisions amphibious assaults into North Korea by US Army and Marines at the narrow waist of North Korea. The entire resources of the US Marine Corps would flow there to establish a beachead, with substantial Army resources quickly conducting over-the-shore operations.

I'm goin' camping!

Holy fiddlesticks! I'm goin' camping! In a couple of weeks I am headed up north with Monty the hound to canoe into lakes and set up camp.



I think this will be a solo trip, Mbah might come too, but perhaps not. Regardless, this is a perfect time of year - cool, no biting bugs, and I can watch the changing season like I can't anywhere else.

Don't know if I can get the buck saw I want in time, but here's hoping.

Well, I have challenged myself - I will make my first fire by using a stick and firebow. I never bring matches with me camping, just use my firesteel, but last time I tried using a stick and firebow, well, the pine I used for a base just squeaked a lot. Cedar should make a better base. I suppose if I can't make it work in the first couple of hours, I will resort to the firesteel, but I expect it will.

The trip I am planning is twice as far as I normally go, as I have found a good route with only a few hundred meters of portaging - and I do not want to stress Monty's back legs because of the surgery he had - one route has only 135 meters of portage - that might be ideal.

Nothing more for now - just excited and doing some planning in my head.

On Looking Up By Chance At The Constellations
By Robert Frost

You'll wait a long, long time for anything much
To happen in heaven beyond the floats of cloud
And the Northern Lights that run like tingling nerves.
The sun and moon get crossed, but they never touch,
Nor strike out fire from each other nor crash out loud.
The planets seem to interfere in their curves
But nothing ever happens, no harm is done.
We may as well go patiently on with our life,
And look elsewhere than to stars and moon and sun
For the shocks and changes we need to keep us sane.
It is true the longest drouth will end in rain,
The longest peace in China will end in strife.
Still it wouldn't reward the watcher to stay awake
In hopes of seeing the calm of heaven break
On his particular time and personal sight.
That calm seems certainly safe to last to-night.

Bush and the Perception of Weakness

I just had to reproduce this Stratfor Intelligence Report below - I've kept away from posting these kinds of things, but it is a great analysis. Thanks George.

Bush and the Perception of Weakness
By George Friedman

There is good news for the Republican Party: Things can't get much worse. About five weeks from the midterm elections, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) asserting that the situation in Iraq will deteriorate in 2007 is leaked. On top of that, Bob Woodward's book is released to massive fanfare, chronicling major disagreements within the White House over prosecution of the Iraq war and warnings to U.S. President George W. Bush in the summer of 2003 that a dangerous insurgency was under way and that the president's strategy of removing Baathists from the government and abolishing the Iraqi army was a mistake. These events are bad enough, but when U.S. Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) -- the head of a congressional committee charged with shutting down child molesters using the Internet -- is caught sending e-mails to 16-year-old male pages, the news doesn't get much worse.

All of this is tied up with the elections of course. The NIE document leak was undoubtedly meant to embarrass the president. The problem is that it did, as it revealed the rift between the intelligence community and the White House's view of the world. The Woodward book was clearly intended to be published more than a month before the elections, and it was expected to have embarrassing revelations in it. The problem is that not a whole lot of people quoted in the book are denying that they said or did what was described. When former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card is quoted as trying to get U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld out of office and the assertion is made that first lady Laura Bush tried as well, and denials are not flying, you know two things: Woodward intended to embarrass Bush just before the election, and he succeeded. For all we know, the leak about Foley asking about a 16-year-old's boxer shorts may have been timed as well. The problem is that the allegations were true, and Foley admitted what he did and resigned.

These problems might be politically timed, but none of them appears to be based on a lie. The fact is that this confluence of events has created the perception that the Bush White House is disintegrating. Bush long ago lost control of leakers in the intelligence community; he has now started to lose control over former longtime staffers who, having resigned, have turned on him via the Woodward book. Bush appears to be locked into a small circle of advisers (particularly Vice President Dick Cheney and Rumsfeld) and locked into his Iraq strategy, and he generally appears to have suspended decision-making in favor of continuing with decisions already made.

Now, this may not be a fair perception. We are not in the White House and do not know what is going on there. But this is now the perception, and that fact must be entered into the equation. True or not, and fair or not, the president appears to be denying what the intelligence communities are saying and what some of his closest advisers have argued, and it appears that this has been going on for a long time. With the election weeks away, and the Foley scandal adding to the administration's difficulties, there is a reasonable probability that the Republicans will get hammered in the elections, potentially losing both houses of Congress if the current trend continues.

One theory is that Bush doesn't care. He believes in the things he is doing and, whatever happens in the 2006 elections, he will continue to be president for the next two years, with the power of the presidency in his hand. That may be the case, although a hostile Congress with control over the purse strings can force policies on presidents (consider Congress suspending military aid to South Vietnam under Gerald Ford). Congress has substantial power when it chooses to exercise it.

But leaving the question of internal politics aside, the perception that Bush's administration is imploding can have a significant impact on his ability to execute his foreign policy because of how foreign nations will behave. The perception of disarray generates a perception of weakness. The perception of weakness encourages foreign states to take advantage of the situation. Bush has argued that changing his Iraq policy might send the Islamic world a signal of weakness. That might be true, but the perception that Bush is losing control of his administration or of Congress can also signal weakness. If Bush's intent is the reasonable goal of not appearing weak, he obviously must examine the current situation's effects on his ability to reach that goal.

Consider a matter not involving the Islamic world. This week, a crisis blew up in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, which is now closely aligned with the United States. Georgia arrested four Russian military officers, charging them with espionage. The Russians demanded their release and halted the withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia -- a withdrawal Moscow had promised before the arrests gave it the opportunity to create a fundamental crisis in Russo-Georgian relations.

Normally a crisis of this magnitude involving a U.S. ally like Georgia would rise to the top of the pile of national security issues at the White House, with suitable threats made and action plans drawn up. Furthermore, the Russians would normally have been quite careful about handling such a crisis. There was little evidence of Russian caution; the Russians refrained from turning the situation into a military conflict, but they certainly turned up the heat on Georgia as the crisis evolved on its own. The Kremlin press service said Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about Georgia in a telephone conversation Oct. 2, and that Putin told Bush third parties should be careful about encouraging Georgia.

The Russians frankly do not see the United States as capable of taking meaningful action at this point. That means Moscow can take risks, exert pressure and shift dynamics in ways it might have avoided a year ago out of fear of U.S. reprisals. The Russians know Bush does not have the political base at home, or even the administrative ability, to manage a crisis. Both National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice are obsessed with Iraq and the Washington firestorm. As for Rumsfeld, Woodward quoted the head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. John Abizaid, as saying Rumsfeld lacks credibility. That statement has not been denied. It is bad when a four-star general says that about a secretary of defense. Since the perception of U.S. crisis management is that no one is minding the shop, the Russians tested their strength.

There is, of course, a much more serious matter: Iran. Iran cut its teeth on American domestic politics. After the Iranians seized U.S. Embassy personnel as hostages, they locked the Carter administration into an impossible position, in which its only option was a catastrophic rescue attempt. The Iranians had an enormous impact on the 1980 election, helping to defeat Carter and not releasing the hostages until Ronald Reagan was sworn in as president. They crippled a president once and might like to try it again.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was involved in the hostage-taking and got a close-up view of how to manipulate the United States. Iran already undermined Bush's plans for a stable government in Iraq when it mobilized Shiite forces against the Baghdad government over the summer. Between that and the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, Iran saw itself in a strong position. Iran then conducted a diplomatic offensive, as a former Iranian president and the current Iranian president both traveled to the United States and tried to make the case that they are more moderate than the Bush administration painted them.

With five weeks until the U.S. congressional midterm elections, the Iranians would love to be able to claim that Bush, having rejected their overtures, was brought down -- or at least crippled -- by Iran. There are rumors swirling about pending major attacks in Iraq by pro-Iranian forces. There are always rumors swirling in Iraq about attacks, but in this particular case, logic would give them credibility. The Iranians might be calculating that if Iranian-sponsored groups could inflict massive casualties on U.S. troops, it would affect the U.S. election enough to get a Democratic Congress in place -- which could cripple Bush's ability to wage war and further weaken the United States' position in the Middle East. This, of course, would increase Iran's standing in the region.

The Iranian perception is that the United States does not have the resources to launch either an invasion or massive airstrikes against Iran. The Bush administration's credibility on weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is too low for that to be regarded as a plausible excuse, and even if strikes were launched to take out WMD, that rationale would not justify an extended, multi-month bombing campaign. Since the Iranians believe the United States lacks the will and ability to try regime change from the air, Tehran is in a position to strike without putting itself at risk.

If the Iranians were to strike hard at the United States in Iraq, and the United States did not respond effectively, then the perception in key countries like Saudi Arabia -- a religious and geopolitical rival of Iran's -- would be that aligning with the United States is a dangerous move because the U.S. ability to protect them is not there, and therefore they need to make other arrangements. Since getting the Saudis' cooperation against al Qaeda was a major achievement for the Bush administration, this would be a major reversal. But if Riyadh perceived the United States as inherently weak, Riyadh would have no choice but to recalculate and relaunch its foreign policy.

Iran and others are feeling encouraged to take risks before the upcoming U.S. election -- either because they see this as a period of maximum American weakness or because they hope to influence the election and further weaken Bush. If they succeed, many U.S. allies will, like the Saudis, have to recalculate their positions relative to the United States and move away. The willingness of people in Iraq and Afghanistan to align with the United States will decline. If the United States is seen as a loser, it will become a loser. Furthermore, the NIE and the Woodward book create the perception that Bush has become isolated in his views and unable to control his own people. He needs to reverse this perception.

It is easy to write that. It is much harder to imagine how he will accomplish it, particularly if there is a major attack in Iraq or elsewhere. Bush's solution has been to refuse to bend. That worked for a while, but that strategy is no longer credible because it is not clear that Bush still has the option of not bending. The disarray in his administration and the real possibility of losing Congress means that merely remaining resolved is not enough. Bush needs to bring perceived order to the perceived chaos in the administration. Between the bad luck of degenerate congressmen and the intentions of the Iranians, he does not have many tools at his disposal. The things he might have done a year ago, like replacing Rumsfeld, are not an option now. It would smell of panic, and he cannot afford to be seen as panicky. Perhaps Bush's only option at this point is to remain self-assured and indifferent to the storm around him.

Whatever the perception in the United States, Bush's enemies overseas are not impressed by his self-assurance, and his allies are getting very worried that, like Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, his political weakness will not allow him to control the U.S. course.

We believe that, in the end, reality governs perception. But we are not convinced that, in this case, the perception and the reality are not one and the same; and we are not convinced that, in the coming weeks, the perception is not in fact more important than the reality. And if the Republicans lose the upcoming elections, the perception that Bush lacks the plans and political power needed for decisive action will become the reality.

For Bush to be able to execute the foreign policy he wants, his party must win the midterm elections. For that to happen, Bush must get control of the political situation quickly. To do that, he must change the perception that his own administration is out of control.

Easy to write. Harder to do.

Campfire on the Beach

Yesterday afternoon I took the pooch to Cherry Beach - hardly anyone was there, it was getting cold, windy and a rain was beginning to wet the sand and texture the water in the bay.

I picked up an armload of wind-dropped deadwood and scavenged the bank for weeds and came across scads of dried milkweed pods.


I picked up an armload of wind-dropped deadwood and scavenged the bank for weeds and came across scads of dried milkweed pods. I used these for tinder - they took to a spark from my knife and firesteel like gasoline, and despite the wind and the gathering waves, I soon had a roaring fire on the sand, keeping me warm. Adding driftwood to the embers kept the fire going for a while.


Monty - wild-eyed and happy - returned from the rocky surf with a tennis ball, over and over again. I thought about camping. In 2 weeks I'm off in a canoe.